Since my thoughts in January, I was correct in my prediction of the late snow.
The general consensus amongst Keepers is that the grouse would not have been able to lay eggs in early April, particularly on the high ground where the snow did not go until mid April. Therefore it is likely that the main hatch will have been delayed particularly as the condition of the heather is quite atrocious having been very badly affected by the persistent cold winds from the east in March and low temperatures.
The moors were incredibly wet in March but the long, cold spell has dried them out substantially, so the recent rain will have been beneficial.
However, even here in Yorkshire going from temperatures of 23˚c on the 7th May down to 4˚c on the 9th May is not ideal for insect production.
At the date of writing none of the Keepers I have spoken to have seen a grouse chick and usually by 10th May some chicks have been seen on lower parts of the moor.
We are now entering the key phase of grouse production during middle of May and middle of June.
In 2008 the bad rain came on the 8th/9th of June but the grouse were all sufficiently large enough to take the deluge. However this year, due to the later hatching, I predict that the grouse will be vulnerable up until the middle of June and I very much doubt that the benign warm temperatures we had in May 2012 (the only summer most of us enjoyed) will be repeated. I hope I am proved wrong.
The spring pair counts on most moors are similar to last year and some notable cases are above last year’s record count, but at these levels warning lights must be flashing.
I am willing to bet quite a lot of money that there is no way the grouse will produce average brood sizes of 7 and 8 as they did on a lot of the moors last year and brood sizes will be nearer 5, assuming we don’t have a total wipe out. Even at this brood size there will be substantial respective densities of grouse.
If we have prolonged, dry and cold weather I think there will be a big problem on some moors. I await to be proved wrong.
Adrian Thornton-Berry
May 2013